For a smaller vehicle like a Tesla Model 3 or Hyundai Kona EV, range could be doubled, or prices could be reduced 25-50%, indicating that a practical EV with long range could be purchased for a price in the range of 20,000-30,000 USD.īut the Li-ion batteries are also flawed. Conversely, if the battery pack volume is cut in half, a Tesla Model S cost may be reduced as much as 50% because less battery is needed for the same performance, and the battery is the bulk of the vehicle cost. For reference, within 10 years if the energy density of batteries is doubled, a vehicle such as the Tesla Model S won’t have 500 km of range, but 1000 km. Currently these rates appear linear, however if greater compounding occurs, these metrics will be met much earlier. Today, these batteries have achieved low cost and increasing energy density - not by leap-frogging their competition with technological breakthroughs, but with simple and persistent engineering optimization of their production methods, tooling, speeds, and efficiency.īy extrapolating the present improvement rate, NCM Li-ion batteries will achieve $100/kWh at the cell level and will likely achieve 300 Wh/kg before 2030. As the cost of these batteries has significantly reduced over the last decade, they are becoming a more viable alternative for long duration applications by simply stacking them in larger quantities. Li-ion batteries have become winners because they are cheap and perform well. From ships to tablets, NCM has had significant adoption in recent years, with manufacturers such as LG and Samsung putting it at the centre of their battery production portfolio. Li-ion's massive uptake is in part due to Li-ion Nickel-Cobalt-Manganese (NCM) batteries, which have a good balance of energy density, power and comprise much of the present growth in battery electric vehicles in the automotive sector as well as for battery-hybrid and fully electric ships. Yet, the widely adopted rechargeable battery isn’t optimal for safety or resource-utilization. Out of the transportation means which are powered by batteries, Lithium-Ion (Li-ion) constitute 95-99% of those batteries.
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